Introduction
With the start of the Bonn Climate Change Conference 2024, reflections on last year’s discussions offer useful perspectives for predicting future trends. This conference, a quieter precursor to the annual Conference of the Parties (COP), serves as a critical preparatory meeting for the UNFCCC’s supreme decision-making body. Last year, our team of data scientists at Arboretica examined Twitter media and popular articles around the Bonn Conference, discovering that the hot topics often anticipated the major discussions at COP
This year, our analysis ranges from June 16, 2023, to May 24, 2024, focusing on news articles and LinkedIn posts to predict what might dominate the 2024 Bonn Conference. With a collection of 1045 unique articles and posts at our disposal, we are left wondering: what can we expect from the Bonn Climate Change Conference 2024 based on the past year’s news and linkedin posts?
Definitons
- Loss and Damage: Harmful consequences of climate change for the most vulnerable communities, beyond their capacity to adapt.
- Climate Finance: Financial resources dedicated to addressing climate change through mitigation and adaptation efforts.
- National Adaptation Plans (NAPs): Strategic frameworks developed by countries to address their medium- and long-term adaptation needs.
- Adaptation: Adjusting to climate change to minimize its negative effects.
Media vs. Linkedin
By examining the data based on the list of ESG topics, there is a clear difference in how media news and Linkedin prioritize these subjects. Media outlets have a focus on adaptation, human rights, finance and private sector, and agriculture; whilst linkedin posts prioritize finance and private sector, followed by adaptation and agriculture.
This variation highlights the different audiences and purposes each platform serves.
How to make the most out of Linkedin ?
Engagement in LinkedIn surrounding the Bonn Climate Conference differs from volume of posts. LinkedIn engagement around climate events peaks before the events like COP and the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, while post volume surges immediately after.
Engagement seems to be partnered with important events. But the peak volume of posts happen after the event happens. Take the following instance, for example. We can see that engagement peaks on 24/10/2023 from one post. Then this engagement builds up all throughout COP28. Right after the conference ends, we see the peak in volume of 38 posts, and engagement slowly reduces over the next few weeks. So, there is more engagement when an event is going to happen and more volume right after an event.
To maximize the impact of their LinkedIn posts, stakeholders should engage with the audience before major events and increase posting activity right after these events to capitalize on the heightened interest.
KEY OPINION LEADERS (KOL) in the news
Who are the most influential people for the Bonn Conference?
Our analysis identifies the top influencers in climate news based on metrics like degree, betweenness centrality, and eigenvector centrality. These measures help determine the most connected and influential figures within the climate network. Based on this data the top three leaders were:
Ilham Aliyev is president of Azerbaijan and host of COP29 in November 2024. He has become more influential as press conferences and meetings due to COP29 take place such as the Petersberg Climate Dialogue on April 25 2024 and the third meeting of the Organizing Committee for COP on May 4.
Sultan Al Jaber, minister of industry and advanced technology of the United Arab Emirates, is the former COP28 president. There was initial controversy over his role as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, which pushed the UN to take a step towards transparency and require the identification of fossil fuel lobbyists. Last year’s Bonn Conference called out Sultan Al Jaber to snap out of “Listening mode” and get to action.
Svenja Schultze, Germany’s minister of Economic Cooperation, is also one of the key opinion leaders. Her influence is linked directly to the Bonn Conference, which is held in Germany each year. Her name was mentioned during the Petersburg Climate Dialogue (25/4) as Germany continues to promote the Climate Club, alongside other 38 members, whose objective is to agree on a common standard for green steel by the start of the 2024 World Climate Conference. During the last conference, 25 countries contributed to a fund helping developing countries respond to climate change and raised 9.3 billion dollars.
Climate Finance
The ongoing Bonn Conference is expected to emphasize climate finance, specifically with regard to the “Loss and Damage” fund. Important topics for discussion include:
- Setting a new financial goal to support developing countries, replacing the unmet $100 billion per year target.
- Enhancing transparency in climate finance, addressing criticisms of miscounted or inflated data.
- Closing the adaptation finance gap through robust National Adaptation Plans, which were highlighted during the NAP Expo 2024 in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Sentiment on the 2023 Bonn Conference was negative, due to poor progress throughout the conference. During the last session Yamide Dagnet brought up the “need to adapt to find a quicker solution”. Hand in hand with the adaptation that the media talk about is the “Loss and Damage”. The last Bonn Climate Change Conference focus was on the Global Stocktake, a two-year process to track the progress towards the Paris agreement, from which we see a shift towards transparency.
We can expect the ongoing Bonn Conference to discuss climate change adaptation and “Loss and Damage”. Especially connected to climate finance. They must decide on a new collective quantified goal to replace the goal of $100 billion per year as they haven’t yet supplied the target in full.
Some recent news articles criticize adaptation finance data, and state that numbers are being miscounted or artificially inflated by donors. With the boost that Finance has gained recently and these new allegations, we can expect transparency to be discussed in the Bonn Conference.
During the NAP expo 2024 in Dhaka Bangladesh on April 22-25, the Climate Change Commission really pointed out the importance of National Adaptation Plans for developing nations at risk and affected by climate change. It was said that NAPs should then be considered as investment plans. Closing the adaptation finance gaps and determining a new quantified goal seem to be the focus of this conference. And news discusses the need for innovation to achieve said goals.
Bonn Conference 2024 acts as a continuation of the NAP expo 2024 discussing themes like closing the finance gap, the importance of the National Adaptation Plans, and finding a more feasible financial goal. All to support developing countries to reach the climate change goals and with special focus on transparency.
CONCLUSION
We expect a number of crucial topics, including national adaptation plans, climate finance, and transparency, to be covered during the ongoing Bonn Climate Change Conference in 2024. By analyzing past trends and current discussions, we can predict conversation to target the finance gap and support developing nations in their climate adaptation efforts.
For access to the raw data, please reach out to tamara@arboretica.com
